18. Express Entry Draw # 158 - All program draw is back!

August 5th, 2020 marked the second all program draw for express entry candidates since COVID restrictions went into effect (first was on July 8, 2020). The cutoff score this time was 476 - two points lower than July 8th draw.

This was much higher than what I had predicted in previous posts. The primary reason for this was the month-long gap between this and the previous all program draw. This enabled quite a few number of candidates to enter the pool. 

However, I must confess, my predictions would have underestimated the cutoff had I taken the month long gap into account. This is because of the following surprising observation: 

CRS Score Range	5-Aug-20
601-1200	36%
501-600	113%
491-500	61%
481-490	86%
471-480	7%
461-470	0%
451-460	-2%
441-450	2%

The above chart is the percentage growth in number of candidates from previous draw by CRS score range. I did not see this coming - significant increase in high-scoring candidates!  This could be due to following reasons: job offers in Canada (LMIA exempt intra company transfers, included, which may receive points for Canadian experience as well),  Canadian students, provincial nominations, etc. 

Also, in mid-scoring candidates (441-471), growth was dramatically low. In fact, for candidates in the range of 451-470, there was virtually no growth!  In other words, upward mobility in these groups was next to negligible (which is what I had predicted in previous posts).  This implies that COVID restrictions are still preventing folks from entering the pool, retaking IELTS and obtaining ECAs. 

I envision the trend of one all program draw per month during COVID "era". This could mean that cut off scores will continue to drop but not by much before they stabilize. Or, this rogue phenomenon (boost in high scoring candidates) discontinues, in which case we may see a steep decline in cut off score. 

All in all, folks with CRS score of 461-465, start thinking about Job offers and provincial nominations. Folks with CRS scores of 465 and higher may also consider researching alternatives as a good option but you can still wait till another draw to confirm the trend I've highlighted before changing any sort of direction. 

17. Draw # 157 CEC Only - 2 draws in 2 days!

This COVID situation is throwing express entry draw patterns into a haywire.  We've had two draws within two days - regardless of all program or not. 

This is good news for FSW folks as well - since within two days, IRCC has scooped up most of the candidates above 460s (typical score for candidates with no PNP, Canadian Experience, or a Job Offer). Because of this, if all program draw is to take place fairly soon, then we should expect a steep decline in cutoff scores. 

IRCC has not updated CRS distribution of candidates since previous draw (which was yesterday) - so it is safe to assume that the distribution would not have changed much between the two draws (also, because they happened within two days). 

The point here is this: if IRCC were to conduct an all program draw tomorrow - my predictive analysis shows that CRS cutoff score will be at least 468, if not lower! 

So, let's keep our fingers crossed! 

16. Draw # 156 - PNP only - Analysis

For federal skilled worker candidates, like us, today's draw seemed disappointing at first glance. The draw didn't target all programs, only provincial nominee program candidates.

But disappointment is a myopic reaction. Firstly, PNPs only draw "emptied" the upper most echelon of the ranges (i.e. 601-1200), allowing next draws to dig deeper into lower rungs. This is assuming minuscule provincial nominations in the coming weeks. 

Secondly, current distribution of candidates by range of scores has bolstered the fact that COVID has taken a big toll on new entries and candidates trying to climb up the ladder. 

Compared to previous draw, candidates in the range of 481-600 dropped on an average by 73%!  This is attributed to many reasons as highlighted in post # 15.  This drop was spectacularly aggressive (I could not have imaged this number to be higher than 50%). Therefore, in future all program draws, CRS cut off scores should be expected to dive lower than 478 (cutoff score from July 8th, 2020 all program draw). 

It is important to perform a hypothetical analysis. Based on the CRS distribution of candidates, what would be the cutoff score if today's draw was indeed an all program draw?

In such a case, with 3900 ITAs, all candidates with CRS scores between 481-1200 would have received an ITA!  Also, almost top 60% of candidates within 471-480 range would have found ITAs in their inbox! 

Based on previous cutoff of 478 (which was issued to top 805 candidates), my estimate for the cutoff score of today's hypothetical all program draw is 471! 

This is much lower than my initial prediction.  

A word of caution that needs to be kept in mind. Even though PNP and CEC only draws do ultimately assist in bringing down the all program draw cut off scores, there is no match to having regular all program draws with high number of ITAs. 

Therefore, I still think that if we get as low as 471 cutoff for the next all program draw, I'd be pleasantly surprised. 

15. Cut off Score Predictions for All Program Draws - Express Entry

After July 8, 2020 all program draw (after almost 3 months of abstention) scooped up candidates at and above a whopping cutoff score of 478, folks like me have been left wondering whether game is over (unless we grab a job offer, PNP, etc.). 

When confused, I look at data. First things first - as mentioned towards the end of my last post (14th post), unless there is an extraordinary situation that causes a spike in cut off scores (for example, a missed all program draw) and which in turn results in a steep corrective decline in cut off scores in subsequent draws, one should never expect cut off scores in general to decrease. There is always an underlying upward "crawl" of scores due to various reasons: new candidates, candidates moving higher in rank within the pool via better language results, job offers, new educational credentials, etc.  See the graph with historical cut off scores and a trendline marking this upward crawl.

The only exception is when a combination of drops offs (candidates sliding down the ranking ladder - primarily due to aging, etc.) and new candidates is less than upward movement. 

And this is why current period is interesting. Let me be very clear. The game would have been over and we would not be talking about "how much" scores would drop if we were not living through COVID pandemic. 

It is because of COVID, all the factors that would result in a net "downward" movement are in play (and possible will stay in play for some time). 

• Language Test Centers are not completely open.  Candidates are unable to take language tests - this is preventing them to better their test scores, or even enter express entry. 
• Unemployment. A global pandemic has caused major unemployment across the world and Canada is no exception. Businesses are losing revenue and hence there is a major hiring freeze. Therefore, job offers are expected to be choked and that is especially true for foreign candidates. Even provincial nominations should expect a hit. 
• Experience / Adaptability in Canada. Factors such as experience and education in Canada which may add additional adaptability points, should also face issues due to beleaguered economy. Even though this area is the least of the three to bear the impact of a pandemic, all of the candidates (at least most) who benefited from these factors were scooped up and issued ITAs on July 8, 2020.  Between last and next draw, additional candidates to acquire points and move upward in rank due to these factors should be expected minimum.

Assuming next draw will feature 3900 ITAs as well, I've charted four different scenarios: 

1. Very Conservative prediction (Least deviation from the norm - least COVID impact)
2. Conservative
3. Aggressive 
4. Very Aggressive (Reasonably high deviation from the norm - most COVID impact)

The below chart depicts what percentage of the candidates in July 8, 2020 should be expected in the next draw.  As an example, my model assumes that even for a very conservative model (least deviation), we should still expect AT LEAST 20% drop in number of candidates in 601-1200 range (hence, 80% of July 8, 2020 number).  For the same range, most aggressive model assumes a 50% drop. 

CRS Score	6-Jul-20 Draw	Very Conser.	Conserv.	Aggre.	Very Aggres.
601-1200	360	80%	70%	60%	50%
501-600	652	85%	80%	75%	70%
491-500	483	85%	80%	75%	70%
481-490	1600	90%	80%	70%	60%
471-480	4561	95%	85%	75%	65%
461-470	7468	95%	85%	75%	65%
451-460	8191	95%	85%	75%	65%
441-450	7679	95%	85%	75%	65%

My prediction is that the next draw will feature candidates somewhere between Conservative and Aggressive.  Based on my data model, here are the predictions for next draw's cut offs. 

Very Conservative (477)

Conservative (476)

Aggressive (475)

Very Aggressive (474) 

I would balance my expectations for next draw to around 475 cut off! 

Actual results in the next draw may be completely off, but I will be pleasantly surprised if cut off is less than 474, and sorely disappointed if it is greater than 477. 

To Summarize: 

Prediction for Next Draw's Cut Off Score:  477 >= Cut Off >= 474

14. All-Program draw resumes and Data Analysis!

It is indeed a sigh of relief. After the all-program draw on March 4, 2020, IRCC had restricted all future draws to CEC (Canadian Experience Class) and PNP (Provincial Nominee Program) candidates only. This was due to public health concerns and travel restrictions stemming out of COVID-19 pandemic. 

But this changed on July 8, 2020 when hopeful prospective candidates - like us - woke up to the news of all-program draw being resumed after 4 months of dormancy. 

Even though the cutoff CRS score was an all time high of 478, it wasn't as high as I had expected keeping in mind that the last draw was months ago and had a cutoff score of 471. 

A peek into the past 

Based on my data analysis (for all-program draws data going back to March 2019), a draw is conducted every 11 business days with few exceptions. 

May 29, 2019 draw was conducted 21 days after the previous draw on May 1, 2019, which deviated from the regular cycle by one missed draw. This brief disruption resulted in a jump of 20 points in CRS cutoff score (from 450 to 470)!  

Similarly, October 30, 2019 draw was 21 days after its predecessor resulting in a jump of 11 points in CRS cutoff score (from 464 to 475)! 

The missed all-program draw allowed room for a specialized draw for Federal Skilled Trade stream, PNP stream, etc.  Please refer to the graph below that relates CRS Cutoff Score to Draws (since March 2019). 

Few critical observations that need to be highlighted in case of a missed draw: 

1. Cut-off score jumped to an all time high level till that point (red arrows in the graph). Till May 29, 2019 draw, CRS cutoff had never been as high as 470. Similarly, CRS cutoff was never as high as 475 till October 30, 2019 draw!  

This is because of "pile-up" effect due to a missed draw. Thousands of candidates that may have had ITAs issued in missed draw crowded the following draw. Also, new candidates entered pool at a consistent rate and there is an upward movement of candidates in the pool. This resulted in overcompensation of CRS cutoff to issue ITAs to backlogged candidates. This does make statistical sense because what happened between these unusually distant draws was allocation of candidates at an expected rate.

2. After the expected jump in CRS cutoff score, correction begins in the form of a steep decline in CRS cutoff scores (green arrows). Merely 4 draws after the one that marked an epic high of 470, cutoff scores dropped below 460. Similar story can be narrated for October 2019 episode. 

This is expected. Since after draws resume at a normal rate, scores begin to normalize as "crowding" candidates from missed draw begin to receive ITA's. This should help calm some anxious souls! 

3. This is where the rub lies. Correction is steep but never as steep as to drop the CRS cutoff scores to "the way things were". On May 1 2019, CRS cutoff was 450, it hiked to 470 due to a missed draw, and ultimately receded to 459 after four normal draws. That is still 9 points higher than before the missed draw. And on October 2, 2019, cutoff was 464, that ballooned by 11 points to 475, before deflating back to 469 after two months - still 5 points here than before the missed draw.

This is the trickiest of all to decipher but my best guess is that it's the norm! Even if there was no sudden hike, eventually the Cutoff scores would increase albeit at a slower pace. This is because there is a continuous push by candidates to move upward in rank (by retaking language test, or even earning a diploma or a graduate degree, etc.) which results in net positive movement because drop-offs (due to aging, ITAs received, etc.) are not as high. Hence this slow, but steady, upward crawl prevents scores to fall to as low as they were before. Unless there is a missed draw or some other extraordinary situation, candidates should not expect cut-off scores to go down (at least not significantly). 

This is disconcerting for people who are daunted by latest cutoff of 478 and were expecting (because of observation # 2) a steep decline. Please continue to read for a ray of hope!  

COVID - AN ABNORMALITY LIKE NONE OTHER

Now let's get back to today! After 3 months of abstention, there was a jump in cutoff score of 8 points! If historical data is to be used for extrapolation, I would expect a hike to the tune of 20-30 points or more!  (Imagine a cutoff score of 500+!!). 

This abnormally dampened jump can be attributed to the fact that WE ARE NOT LIVING IN NORMAL TIMES.  COVID-19 has essentially shut the world down.  Folks cannot gather documents such as ECA and most important give IELTS in most of the countries. After such a major gap, total number of candidates have dropped from previous draw (by 300) - this is perhaps the first of its kind! Even if by a small margin, I have noticed an increase in total number of candidates in future draws.  COVID has resulted in more drop offs than upward movement! 

This is again expected. It is becoming exceptionally difficult (or impossible in most cases) to take (or retake) language tests or request documents during this time. This has resulted in people having to wait till things "open up" before they can attempt to move upward in rank, or even enter express entry. 

And this is a ray of hope for people who had all their documents sorted out before COVID caused shut downs. There is a decent chance that as we see a "corrective" decline in CRS cutoff scores, it may actually go quite low - lower than in examples provided above. This is because all the factors that prevented scores to drop further (the upward crawl of candidates) is missing (or halted to a vast extent). 

Whether cutoff score will drop to as low as ours, is to be seen! 

13. Road Map Update: Express Entry Application Submitted

It is a major milestone for us in this journey. We have submitted our application into the Express Entry Pool!

The application process was pretty straightforward. It took us around 20-30 minutes to complete the process - including the time taken to complete an optional questionnaire. Some of the important points that I would like to highlight to potential applicants:

• Information needed to complete Express Entry Profile: Official language test results, Passport, awareness of NOC of job claimed in work experience, official Education Credential Assessment report. Note: language test and ECA must be official results - since you would need official form/reference numbers on it.

• DO NOT FORGET security questions and answers - note them down in a separate file. You will need this not only before transmitting (signing and submitting) the application, but also to login to your Express Entry account.
• In personal information section, you are asked Country/Territory of Issue of your passport. It is rather a simple question if you live in the country that issued your passport. For those residing abroad (like us), it may trip you. To make it absolutely clear, after confirming it through online sources, Country/Territory of Issue is the passport country. For example, if you have a Canadian passport which was issue by a consulate in Washington DC (USA), Country / Territory of Issue is still Canada, since Consulate is its home country's representative in foreign countries. 
• Enter the highest level of education. If you have a master's degree, enter that. There is no need to enter your bachelor's degree, high school information, etc. The rule of thumb is to provide education for which you would like to claim points and for which you've obtained an ECA (for foreign degree). 

12. DACA Update

Breaking the silent streak to provide some, surprising to many, disappointing news. Supreme Court on June 18, 2020 sided with Dreamers in an inflammatory case which was argued back in November of 2019. 

I wanted DACA to be rescinded, buried, and put to rest... forever. That was the only way the Congress of the United States would have attempted to provide some sort of permanent relief to oddly 700,000 young immigrants like myself. President Trump had made it very clear that he would formulate a deal to keep Dreamers in the US "when" the Supreme Court issues results in his favor. Veracity of each of his words has always been questionable. However, given the history of melee on this subject between Democrats, Republicans, and a Republican President, and the sheer catastrophe that would befall on the lives of hundreds of thousands of dreamers if they were to be placed under removal proceedings or left bereft of their temporary authorization to work, a deal made under a pressure cooker seemed as the only viable option.

That didn't happen. To my surprise, the highest court of the land gave a pretty sheepish judgement. 

"… the agency failed to consider the conspicuous issues of whether to retain forbearance and what if anything to do about the hardship to DACA recipients. That dual failure raises doubts about whether the agency appreciated the scope of its discretion or exercised that discretion in a reasonable manner. The appropriate recourse is therefore to remand to DHS so that it may consider the problem anew."

The court wants Trump Administration to "consider the problem anew". Consider the problem of what to do with dreamers anew. That, according to Supreme Court, is the "appropriate recourse".

It is beyond my cognition as to why the dreamers, and ostensibly supportive organizations, are celebrating this "chickening out" of a ruling. Supreme Court didn't rule "DACA cannot be rescinded." Neither did it rule that "DACA is unconstitutional and must be rescinded." Both of these opinions lead to a logical conclusion of tossing this issue onto the legislative table and figuring out a way to lift a veil of uncertainty off dreamers.

Supreme Court has asked Trump Administration to "consider the problem anew." If Trump's DHS follows these instructions (which only a dimwit wouldn't), then all they need to do is incorporate in their reasoning to rescind DACA a definite decision "of whether to retain forbearance (i.e. prosecutorial discretion), and "what if anything to do about the hardship of DACA recipients." Based on this ruling, isn't all that DHS has to do to circumvent a future negative ruling is say "No" to first question, and "place all DACA recipients under removal proceedings" to the latter? 

A few hours ago, on that note, the President announced via Twitter "We will be submitting enhanced papers shortly...". 

The hammer is coming down soon, Dreamers. Toss the champagne and run for cover. 

11. Road Map Update

My spouse finally received her ECA and her degree has been recognized as Master's.  Therefore, this step has concluded and technically, we're ready to create our Express Entry profile! 

10. IELTS Results!

The tenth post marks a milestone of receiving IELTS results.   Language proficiency is a criterion with room for most flexibility to gain points.   It's much difficult and time consuming to get an additional degree or a year of experience than upping your language score.   

My spouse made it a point to check online for our results every 5 minutes on the day they were supposed to be released.   You may check your results online before the hard copy is delivered to provided address by clicking here (for USA).  You will need your passport number to access results.  Below is a snapshot of my online result! 

I am extremely happy with my score even if it's not perfect.  What matters is the equivalent CLB level. See equivalent CLB levels below from IRCC website. I've highlighted my score on the chart. 

And that's the reason for my happiness - CLB10 in every section!  

Note in the official online result, I've not really shown the entire text below the result line.  That part contains cookie-cutter advice to improve your score.  

Don't ask my why it reads "IDP IELTS AUSTRALIA" when we took our exam on the east coast of US! 

9. Road Map Update

My spouse and I received our IELTS results (online) and are content with it.  Therefore, another milestone in our road map is marked as closed. 

8. Education Credential Assessment Report

WES made an electronic copy of ECA report available as PDF through their portal in ~ 27 business days.  A snail-mail is also en-route, although its pace may be further dampened by COVID-19 situation.  Below is the actual snapshot of my report. 

It's a one-pager report with an equivalency summary on top.   IRCC is not interested in course-by-course evaluation or GPA.   According to IRCC, this report is valid for 5 years.  So, have this step covered as soon as possible.

7. Education Credential Assessment Process

I just received my ECA report from WES and would like to share some thoughts on that.  

Purpose of Education Credential Assessment (ECA) Report

For all academic degrees and diplomas foreign to Canada and for which you wish to claim points, Canada requires an assessment to ensure they meet the country's academic standards and are bona fide.  

Getting ECA 

• Where: Canadian immigration department (IRCC) has an approved list of agencies for ECA, of which WES is the most popular and the one we used.

• Degrees to be evaluated: Ideally, you want to get the highest level of education assessed.  For example, you may only need to have Master's degree assessed and not underlying bachelor's degree as well.  There are exceptions though. 

Requirements for a Master's degree differ between countries and even disciplines.   A Master's degree in Engineering may be assessed higher than that in Archeology.   

I've come across forums where candidates have expressed disappointment when their MBA (Masters in Business Administration) was assessed as a diploma and not a full Masters.   This is especially true with candidates from Asian countries like India where number of semesters required to achieve MBA is often less than that in Americas.   In such a case, the candidate MUST have BOTH bachelors degree and masters degree assessed to get maximum points of 128 or 119 (w/o or w/ spouse, respectively) under the following criteria: 

Two or more certificates, diplomas, or degrees. One must be for a program of three or more years

The highlighted sentence stipulates that one of the degrees MUST be a bachelors degree.  But it's still better if Masters degree is assessed as such because that holds 135 or 128 maximum points (w/o or w/ spouse). 

Important: if you are a candidate from Africa or Asia and hold a Masters degree from a University in your home country, I strongly recommend having both Masters and Bachelors assessed AT THE SAME TIME.  Doing so, agency will assess BOTH degrees as part of one application for no extra charges.  Otherwise, if Masters is assessed as a diploma, and you THEN wish to have Bachelors assessed, that would count as a new application with applicable charges! 

I do not have a reason to believe that candidates with American degrees need to be concerned of devaluation.  

• Documents Needed: It is applicant's responsibility to arrange official records from their alma mater.   From colleges in US, on an average, it may take up to 10-15 business days for ECA agency to receive credentials.  From other countries, this period maybe more than a month.

Note: if you choose to use e-delivery method, make sure that electronic access to your documents is unrestricted (no password or time-limit).  For most US colleges, this is not the case (including mine).  Therefore, I decided to send both through snail mail and electronically.  Although, going by the timeline provided by the agency, hard copy version was the one which was considered. 

After ECA agency receives credentials, allow at least 30-60 business days for production of ECA report. 

In the next post, I will share my ECA report to familiarize with its format. 

6. Road Map Update

I received ECA (Education Credential Assessment) report from WES as PDF, in addition to a hard copy en route to my address.   

No updates in the cost.  Refer to previous update.  

5. IELTS Experience

My spouse and I gave the IELTS exam and would like to share few words about our experience of the process.

Booking

Available slots and locations may be accessed through IELTS US site.  As part of the online registration process, applicants must upload a copy of their government issued ID (a passport) before they may be allowed to book a slot.  After you've registered, IELTS may take a few days to verify copy of your ID before they approve your registration.  With approval notice, you receive links to one practice test on their official site.  You may pay extra for additional practice tests.   

To be accurate, you book a slot for the writing piece of the test (Listening, Writing, Reading Sections), based on which you're assigned a slot for Speaking test by the agency.  It is natural the agency attempts to avoid having the applicant make two trips to test location - but they leave open the possibility of you being given a slot for Speaking section a day before the rest of the test.   You will get to know your Speaking section appointment a few days before the slot you booked for rest of the test.

Day of Test

You are asked to check-in all valuables / belongings other than a water bottle if there is no label on it (staff actually took off the label for one of the applicants who came with a water bottle).   Your passport is checked and a sticker with your candidate number is pasted to its back.  

IELTS in USA is paper-based, with no exception at the time of drafting of this post.  Written piece - Writing, Listening, and Reading sections - is taken in one shot, consecutively without any official break.   You are assigned a particular classroom (with ~10 other applicants) and a desk as well with your name and candidate number on it.   

The room is not hermetically sealed from outside.   So, additional attention needs to be paid to a class CD player (no personal headphones) during listening section.  "No-disruption during test" policy is strictly enforced. 

Speaking test is a 10-15 minute conversation with an IELTS instructor.   Individual slots are allotted to each tester and test is conducted behind closed doors.   We had a good 2-3 hours of break between our written piece and the speaking one.   You are allowed to be free and do as you wish during that time - a good time to grab food.

All in all, the experience was uneventful - which is what we hoped for.   I will indulge into complexities of the exam once I get my score. 

4. Road Map Update

Because this is the first post of this nature, I'll add some basic details.  I will periodically post updates in our process through "Road Map Update" posts.   This post will not only include a road map as shown below - with status bubbles - but also expenses incurred so far.   I will also provide Update Summary listing everything substantial which took place since last update. 

Note:  All expenses are shown in USD. 

Update Summary: 

• Registered for IELTS for myself and spouse.  Received test date for exactly after a month.
• Registered for WES ECA services for myself and spouse. 
• Requested transcripts from my and my spouses's college. 

3. Thinking behind The Road Map

The entire process to apply for Canadian Permanent Resident via Express Entry may come across as convoluted and overwhelming.  But it is straightforward if you divide your process into relevant parts and stay vigilant of certain deadlines.  Our road map is designed by keeping such aspects in mind (Caution: our road map is specific to our requirements and hence you may have to tweak this to best fit your needs). 

There are THREE parts to this process:  

1. Submitting Express Entry Profile 

2. Waiting for ITA 

3. After ITA, responding to ITA (i.e. applying for PR)

Now let's get into each of these in detail and finally reveal our road map. 

1. Submitting Express Entry Profile 

The two most important things that you will need to do before you may submit your Express Entry profile is give Language Test (IELTS in our case) and get your educational credentials evaluated.   

We have chosen to opt for IELTS.  Both of us have no French skills (other official language of Canada than English).  Since we're in United States, paper-based IELTS is the only option.   Based on my research, there are only two dates available each month!   The results according to IELTS website will be available within 13 days.

In addition to booking a date for the test (I have to do for both myself and my spouse), let's get ECA (Education Credentials Assessment) performed by an accredited organization.  This may take almost a month, if not over!   Remember, you will have to ALSO request official transcripts from your school (ECA organization will NOT do it for you!).  So let's get this going. 

2.  Waiting for ITA

Now that you're content with your language test results and have received proper ECA reports,  you may submit your Express Entry profile.  Please note that I will go into each of these processes as I experience them and will highlight any blind spots. 

As soon as you have submitted Express Entry profile, start gathering documents because some of them will take time.  The most important ones (and trickiest) are criminal background clearance and reference letter from work. 

I have been in US since 20 years, therefore, all I need is FBI clearance.  And based on my research, this process has been recently streamlined and results may be available within a matter of days, if not sooner!   However, my spouse, because she had been in India within the past 10 years (see rules for police certificates), has to obtain police clearance from there in addition to from FBI.  

In addition to references from work, get other critical documents in order.  At this time I do not have the document checklist (you receive one after submitting Express Entry) but birth certificates, marriage certificate, immigration documents of country of residence (if country of residence is different from country of citizenship - like in our case!), etc. 

The bottom line is that as soon as you receive an ITA, the only thing that should be left is to schedule an appointment for your medical exam and get that done.  You should be in a position to upload ALL requirement documents (remember you will have a checklist as soon as you submit your profile into Express Entry) the day you receive your ITA. 

3. Responding to ITA (applying for PR)

Once you receive your ITA, by that time you should be near the goalpost!.   You have 60 days to respond to ITA.  Looks like this duration has been updated to 60 days from 90 days as I have seen the latter mentioned in most YouTube tutorials.  

Schedule your medical exam.   Based on my research,  I have seen only two clinics in neighboring state that are qualified.    

I have not included PNP component to my road map at this time.  If PNP gets involved, I will update my road map as well. 

Next post will be about the actual Road Map.   Road Map will contain tasks, status, and timelines.  I will update road map periodically as we move through the timeline.  

2. About the Program and THREE STEPS for readiness

A little about the program for those who are unsure.   To meet their economic needs, Canada has an Express Entry path for skilled workers to immigrate under three programs as a permanent resident:

Federal Skilled Workers Program (FSW) 
Federal Skilled Trades Program (FST) 
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

Each program has minimum requirements for eligibility.  If you meet the requirements for any one of them, you may apply for Canadian PR via Express Entry.  Click on each of the programs to evaluate whether you qualify under that program or not. 

Therefore, first and foremost, check your eligibility. I am fortunate to be qualifying under Federal Skilled Workers Program.   And, based on my research, this is the most popular among the three. 

If you qualify, congratulations!   We must understand, however, that immigration to Canada is not a right and is driven by economic / social need of the country.  Therefore, once you enter Express Entry "pool" - more on this in a moment - you must wait for an Invitation to Apply (ITA).   

ITAs are managed through bi-weekly (roughly speaking) rounds of invitations to select top ranking candidates in the pool based on round's quota.   For example, if this week the quota of invitations is 3500, then top 3500 candidates in the pool will receive ITAs (there are tie breaking rules, but we don't need to worry about them at this stage). 

You are ranked based on Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS).  This is NOT the same as eligibility criteria for one of the three programs.  This ranking system is more comprehensive and largely designed to invite people that the government believes will most successfully settle in Canada. 

To understand where you stand, second step should be do get your estimated CRS score.  Note:  select No for Provincial Nomination and Job Letter (assuming, you don't have either at this time).  It is best to use this link which is the official government tool instead of those from third party.   Not only because the shifting score criteria can be represented most accurately by a government tool, but some third parties are immigration attorney offices and their tools are usually rigged to give you a more generous evaluation than what it should be.  This is obviously to lure more clients because their hefty fee is regardless of the outcome of your application! 

Once you get your score, compare that to lowest scores (cut-off) that got invitations in recent rounds.   The reason this step is critical is to make sure that you're spending your time, money and resources on the most important tasks to make your application successful.    

• If your score is above the recent cut-off, you are ready for the next step!  
• If it is on the borderline, i.e. 5-7 points lower than recent average cut-off, go ahead with the next step unless you can think of something that may be done in near future to increase your CRS score (about to finish a higher degree, better language results, additional year of experience, etc.).  
• But don't sweat too much because you may qualify for Provincial Nomination.  I will write a separate blog just for this, but generally speaking, each Province in Canada has certain specific demands (like tech experience, etc.) and to meet those they sift through Express Entry candidates and may send a Notification of Interest to some of them.  If you happen to receive one of them and ultimately through their SEPARATE application process gets accepted into a Provincial Nomination Program (PNP), you will get enough points to almost certainly receive an ITA in the next round!   I don't like to bet all my money on PNP and that is the reason at this time I won't go into it. 
• If your score is significantly lower than the recent cut-off (let's say more than 20), work more on increasing your score.  I like to be optimistic and won't discourage anyone from applying, however, relying solely on PNP rather than working to increase your CRS score may not be the best use of your time.  

CRS cut-off has been increasing in the past few months (late 2019s to early 2020s) for various reasons.  Therefore, don't get discouraged if you don't get ITA immediately after entering Express Entry. 

For folks whose score is either above or on the borderline of cut-off (like me), you are ready for the third step.  This is where you will develop a road map (or follow mine with caution risen out of its bespoke nature!) to get things going.  Next Blog on this! 

1. Backstory

Almost 20 years ago, in my early teens, I came to United States.  I was raised by uncles and aunts, socialized by cousins and family friends.   With starry-eyed dreams to become a filmmaker and a writer, I went on to pursue a "safer" career path in Mechanical Engineering from an Ivy League school.  After graduating with a masters degree, I landed a job with a handsome salary from which, for the next seven years, I would go onto chip in around USD 230,000 to US Treasury in tax receipts.  

I find myself, today, planning to leave US to migrate to Canada in order for me to become a permanent resident of the Home Up North.  This rather peculiar, and yet oddly inevitable once you get to know the whole spiel, decision is a result of series of disappointing and hopeless events.  I won't go into them.  To be curt, I came to US as a minor and, unbeknownst to me, overstayed my visa to become undocumented.  My papers were missing but experience was wholly American.  To protect folks like me from deportation and give them a chance to a dignified life by allowing us to work legally, DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) was instituted of which I had been a beneficiary for the past seven years.  

For few years, I had forgotten what suffocation felt like.  I could breathe.  I could go about my life.  I could make mistakes.  I could visit places.  I could plan.   I could wonder.   I could live.  But today DACA is on life support, possibly taking its last breath before Supreme Court pulls the plug (if you are interested in "why" and "how" of all this, I have posted some relevant links below). 

Today when I have a life partner, tenuous nature of the ozone layer of DACA over me and the freedoms it gave and the freedoms it just couldn't afford have never been clearer to me.   Traveling outside of US, though possible earlier but still tricky, is prohibited now.  By its very temporary character,  long term investments in home, business, retirement - stuff that gives an illusion of stability - was never more than a firefly trapped in a fist.  Such inequities weighed less than staying in US.   But today, in my early 30s, and my hand in hers, scale has tipped... finally. 

WE... want to visit our home country, meet our family, have a homestyle wedding, smell those streets, visit Europe, Australia, South America and what not, work fearlessly, have a voice.  WE... want to live. 

It is a sad commentary on the part of US that because of political toxicity, I am almost asked to leave.  It goes as "take your tax dollars, take your education that you got from us, take your norms that we imbibed in you, and please go to Canada and be a permanent resident there." 

I don't want you to think that it's all dark and gloomy.  The scale has tipped.  I am looking forward to all the things on the other plate, for they hold the promise of life, a world experience, and... most importantly, beginning of forming a legacy. 

With nostalgia that comes with leaving a home and excitement of entering a new one, I am starting this blog to document our journey to applying for Canadian immigration.  We hope that anybody interested in immigrating to Canada will have some use of this. 

Related Links

DACA Litigation Timeline (National Immigration Law Center)