When confused, I look at data. First things first - as mentioned towards the end of my last post (14th post), unless there is an extraordinary situation that causes a spike in cut off scores (for example, a missed all program draw) and which in turn results in a steep corrective decline in cut off scores in subsequent draws, one should never expect cut off scores in general to decrease. There is always an underlying upward "crawl" of scores due to various reasons: new candidates, candidates moving higher in rank within the pool via better language results, job offers, new educational credentials, etc. See the graph with historical cut off scores and a trendline marking this upward crawl.
The only exception is when a combination of drops offs (candidates sliding down the ranking ladder - primarily due to aging, etc.) and new candidates is less than upward movement.
And this is why current period is interesting. Let me be very clear. The game would have been over and we would not be talking about "how much" scores would drop if we were not living through COVID pandemic.
It is because of COVID, all the factors that would result in a net "downward" movement are in play (and possible will stay in play for some time).
- Language Test Centers are not completely open. Candidates are unable to take language tests - this is preventing them to better their test scores, or even enter express entry.
- Unemployment. A global pandemic has caused major unemployment across the world and Canada is no exception. Businesses are losing revenue and hence there is a major hiring freeze. Therefore, job offers are expected to be choked and that is especially true for foreign candidates. Even provincial nominations should expect a hit.
- Experience / Adaptability in Canada. Factors such as experience and education in Canada which may add additional adaptability points, should also face issues due to beleaguered economy. Even though this area is the least of the three to bear the impact of a pandemic, all of the candidates (at least most) who benefited from these factors were scooped up and issued ITAs on July 8, 2020. Between last and next draw, additional candidates to acquire points and move upward in rank due to these factors should be expected minimum.
Assuming next draw will feature 3900 ITAs as well, I've charted four different scenarios:
- Very Conservative prediction (Least deviation from the norm - least COVID impact)
- Conservative
- Aggressive
- Very Aggressive (Reasonably high deviation from the norm - most COVID impact)
The below chart depicts what percentage of the candidates in July 8, 2020 should be expected in the next draw. As an example, my model assumes that even for a very conservative model (least deviation), we should still expect AT LEAST 20% drop in number of candidates in 601-1200 range (hence, 80% of July 8, 2020 number). For the same range, most aggressive model assumes a 50% drop.
| CRS Score | 6-Jul-20 Draw | Very Conser. | Conserv. | Aggre. | Very Aggres. |
| 601-1200 | 360 | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| 501-600 | 652 | 85% | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| 491-500 | 483 | 85% | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| 481-490 | 1600 | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| 471-480 | 4561 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 461-470 | 7468 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 451-460 | 8191 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 441-450 | 7679 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
My prediction is that the next draw will feature candidates somewhere between Conservative and Aggressive. Based on my data model, here are the predictions for next draw's cut offs.
Very Conservative (477)
Conservative (476)
Aggressive (475)
Very Aggressive (474)
I would balance my expectations for next draw to around 475 cut off!
Actual results in the next draw may be completely off, but I will be pleasantly surprised if cut off is less than 474, and sorely disappointed if it is greater than 477.
To Summarize:
Prediction for Next Draw's Cut Off Score: 477 >= Cut Off >= 474
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