For federal skilled worker candidates, like us, today's draw seemed disappointing at first glance. The draw didn't target all programs, only provincial nominee program candidates.
But disappointment is a myopic reaction. Firstly, PNPs only draw "emptied" the upper most echelon of the ranges (i.e. 601-1200), allowing next draws to dig deeper into lower rungs. This is assuming minuscule provincial nominations in the coming weeks.
Secondly, current distribution of candidates by range of scores has bolstered the fact that COVID has taken a big toll on new entries and candidates trying to climb up the ladder.
Compared to previous draw, candidates in the range of 481-600 dropped on an average by 73%! This is attributed to many reasons as highlighted in post # 15. This drop was spectacularly aggressive (I could not have imaged this number to be higher than 50%). Therefore, in future all program draws, CRS cut off scores should be expected to dive lower than 478 (cutoff score from July 8th, 2020 all program draw).
It is important to perform a hypothetical analysis. Based on the CRS distribution of candidates, what would be the cutoff score if today's draw was indeed an all program draw?
In such a case, with 3900 ITAs, all candidates with CRS scores between 481-1200 would have received an ITA! Also, almost top 60% of candidates within 471-480 range would have found ITAs in their inbox!
Based on previous cutoff of 478 (which was issued to top 805 candidates), my estimate for the cutoff score of today's hypothetical all program draw is 471!
This is much lower than my initial prediction.
A word of caution that needs to be kept in mind. Even though PNP and CEC only draws do ultimately assist in bringing down the all program draw cut off scores, there is no match to having regular all program draws with high number of ITAs.
Therefore, I still think that if we get as low as 471 cutoff for the next all program draw, I'd be pleasantly surprised.
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