This COVID situation is throwing express entry draw patterns into a haywire. We've had two draws within two days - regardless of all program or not.
This is good news for FSW folks as well - since within two days, IRCC has scooped up most of the candidates above 460s (typical score for candidates with no PNP, Canadian Experience, or a Job Offer). Because of this, if all program draw is to take place fairly soon, then we should expect a steep decline in cutoff scores.
IRCC has not updated CRS distribution of candidates since previous draw (which was yesterday) - so it is safe to assume that the distribution would not have changed much between the two draws (also, because they happened within two days).
The point here is this: if IRCC were to conduct an all program draw tomorrow - my predictive analysis shows that CRS cutoff score will be at least 468, if not lower!
So, let's keep our fingers crossed!
Thursday, July 23, 2020
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
16. Draw # 156 - PNP only - Analysis
For federal skilled worker candidates, like us, today's draw seemed disappointing at first glance. The draw didn't target all programs, only provincial nominee program candidates.
But disappointment is a myopic reaction. Firstly, PNPs only draw "emptied" the upper most echelon of the ranges (i.e. 601-1200), allowing next draws to dig deeper into lower rungs. This is assuming minuscule provincial nominations in the coming weeks.
Secondly, current distribution of candidates by range of scores has bolstered the fact that COVID has taken a big toll on new entries and candidates trying to climb up the ladder.
Compared to previous draw, candidates in the range of 481-600 dropped on an average by 73%! This is attributed to many reasons as highlighted in post # 15. This drop was spectacularly aggressive (I could not have imaged this number to be higher than 50%). Therefore, in future all program draws, CRS cut off scores should be expected to dive lower than 478 (cutoff score from July 8th, 2020 all program draw).
It is important to perform a hypothetical analysis. Based on the CRS distribution of candidates, what would be the cutoff score if today's draw was indeed an all program draw?
In such a case, with 3900 ITAs, all candidates with CRS scores between 481-1200 would have received an ITA! Also, almost top 60% of candidates within 471-480 range would have found ITAs in their inbox!
Based on previous cutoff of 478 (which was issued to top 805 candidates), my estimate for the cutoff score of today's hypothetical all program draw is 471!
This is much lower than my initial prediction.
A word of caution that needs to be kept in mind. Even though PNP and CEC only draws do ultimately assist in bringing down the all program draw cut off scores, there is no match to having regular all program draws with high number of ITAs.
Therefore, I still think that if we get as low as 471 cutoff for the next all program draw, I'd be pleasantly surprised.
But disappointment is a myopic reaction. Firstly, PNPs only draw "emptied" the upper most echelon of the ranges (i.e. 601-1200), allowing next draws to dig deeper into lower rungs. This is assuming minuscule provincial nominations in the coming weeks.
Secondly, current distribution of candidates by range of scores has bolstered the fact that COVID has taken a big toll on new entries and candidates trying to climb up the ladder.
Compared to previous draw, candidates in the range of 481-600 dropped on an average by 73%! This is attributed to many reasons as highlighted in post # 15. This drop was spectacularly aggressive (I could not have imaged this number to be higher than 50%). Therefore, in future all program draws, CRS cut off scores should be expected to dive lower than 478 (cutoff score from July 8th, 2020 all program draw).
It is important to perform a hypothetical analysis. Based on the CRS distribution of candidates, what would be the cutoff score if today's draw was indeed an all program draw?
In such a case, with 3900 ITAs, all candidates with CRS scores between 481-1200 would have received an ITA! Also, almost top 60% of candidates within 471-480 range would have found ITAs in their inbox!
Based on previous cutoff of 478 (which was issued to top 805 candidates), my estimate for the cutoff score of today's hypothetical all program draw is 471!
This is much lower than my initial prediction.
A word of caution that needs to be kept in mind. Even though PNP and CEC only draws do ultimately assist in bringing down the all program draw cut off scores, there is no match to having regular all program draws with high number of ITAs.
Therefore, I still think that if we get as low as 471 cutoff for the next all program draw, I'd be pleasantly surprised.
Monday, July 13, 2020
15. Cut off Score Predictions for All Program Draws - Express Entry
After July 8, 2020 all program draw (after almost 3 months of abstention) scooped up candidates at and above a whopping cutoff score of 478, folks like me have been left wondering whether game is over (unless we grab a job offer, PNP, etc.).
When confused, I look at data. First things first - as mentioned towards the end of my last post (14th post), unless there is an extraordinary situation that causes a spike in cut off scores (for example, a missed all program draw) and which in turn results in a steep corrective decline in cut off scores in subsequent draws, one should never expect cut off scores in general to decrease. There is always an underlying upward "crawl" of scores due to various reasons: new candidates, candidates moving higher in rank within the pool via better language results, job offers, new educational credentials, etc. See the graph with historical cut off scores and a trendline marking this upward crawl.
The only exception is when a combination of drops offs (candidates sliding down the ranking ladder - primarily due to aging, etc.) and new candidates is less than upward movement.
And this is why current period is interesting. Let me be very clear. The game would have been over and we would not be talking about "how much" scores would drop if we were not living through COVID pandemic.
It is because of COVID, all the factors that would result in a net "downward" movement are in play (and possible will stay in play for some time).
My prediction is that the next draw will feature candidates somewhere between Conservative and Aggressive. Based on my data model, here are the predictions for next draw's cut offs.
To Summarize:
Prediction for Next Draw's Cut Off Score: 477 >= Cut Off >= 474
When confused, I look at data. First things first - as mentioned towards the end of my last post (14th post), unless there is an extraordinary situation that causes a spike in cut off scores (for example, a missed all program draw) and which in turn results in a steep corrective decline in cut off scores in subsequent draws, one should never expect cut off scores in general to decrease. There is always an underlying upward "crawl" of scores due to various reasons: new candidates, candidates moving higher in rank within the pool via better language results, job offers, new educational credentials, etc. See the graph with historical cut off scores and a trendline marking this upward crawl.
The only exception is when a combination of drops offs (candidates sliding down the ranking ladder - primarily due to aging, etc.) and new candidates is less than upward movement.
And this is why current period is interesting. Let me be very clear. The game would have been over and we would not be talking about "how much" scores would drop if we were not living through COVID pandemic.
It is because of COVID, all the factors that would result in a net "downward" movement are in play (and possible will stay in play for some time).
- Language Test Centers are not completely open. Candidates are unable to take language tests - this is preventing them to better their test scores, or even enter express entry.
- Unemployment. A global pandemic has caused major unemployment across the world and Canada is no exception. Businesses are losing revenue and hence there is a major hiring freeze. Therefore, job offers are expected to be choked and that is especially true for foreign candidates. Even provincial nominations should expect a hit.
- Experience / Adaptability in Canada. Factors such as experience and education in Canada which may add additional adaptability points, should also face issues due to beleaguered economy. Even though this area is the least of the three to bear the impact of a pandemic, all of the candidates (at least most) who benefited from these factors were scooped up and issued ITAs on July 8, 2020. Between last and next draw, additional candidates to acquire points and move upward in rank due to these factors should be expected minimum.
Assuming next draw will feature 3900 ITAs as well, I've charted four different scenarios:
- Very Conservative prediction (Least deviation from the norm - least COVID impact)
- Conservative
- Aggressive
- Very Aggressive (Reasonably high deviation from the norm - most COVID impact)
The below chart depicts what percentage of the candidates in July 8, 2020 should be expected in the next draw. As an example, my model assumes that even for a very conservative model (least deviation), we should still expect AT LEAST 20% drop in number of candidates in 601-1200 range (hence, 80% of July 8, 2020 number). For the same range, most aggressive model assumes a 50% drop.
| CRS Score | 6-Jul-20 Draw | Very Conser. | Conserv. | Aggre. | Very Aggres. |
| 601-1200 | 360 | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| 501-600 | 652 | 85% | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| 491-500 | 483 | 85% | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| 481-490 | 1600 | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| 471-480 | 4561 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 461-470 | 7468 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 451-460 | 8191 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
| 441-450 | 7679 | 95% | 85% | 75% | 65% |
My prediction is that the next draw will feature candidates somewhere between Conservative and Aggressive. Based on my data model, here are the predictions for next draw's cut offs.
Very Conservative (477)
Conservative (476)
Aggressive (475)
Very Aggressive (474)
I would balance my expectations for next draw to around 475 cut off!
Actual results in the next draw may be completely off, but I will be pleasantly surprised if cut off is less than 474, and sorely disappointed if it is greater than 477.
To Summarize:
Prediction for Next Draw's Cut Off Score: 477 >= Cut Off >= 474
Friday, July 10, 2020
14. All-Program draw resumes and Data Analysis!
It is indeed a sigh of relief. After the all-program draw on March 4, 2020, IRCC had restricted all future draws to CEC (Canadian Experience Class) and PNP (Provincial Nominee Program) candidates only. This was due to public health concerns and travel restrictions stemming out of COVID-19 pandemic.
But this changed on July 8, 2020 when hopeful prospective candidates - like us - woke up to the news of all-program draw being resumed after 4 months of dormancy.
Even though the cutoff CRS score was an all time high of 478, it wasn't as high as I had expected keeping in mind that the last draw was months ago and had a cutoff score of 471.
A peek into the past
Based on my data analysis (for all-program draws data going back to March 2019), a draw is conducted every 11 business days with few exceptions.
May 29, 2019 draw was conducted 21 days after the previous draw on May 1, 2019, which deviated from the regular cycle by one missed draw. This brief disruption resulted in a jump of 20 points in CRS cutoff score (from 450 to 470)!
Similarly, October 30, 2019 draw was 21 days after its predecessor resulting in a jump of 11 points in CRS cutoff score (from 464 to 475)!
The missed all-program draw allowed room for a specialized draw for Federal Skilled Trade stream, PNP stream, etc. Please refer to the graph below that relates CRS Cutoff Score to Draws (since March 2019).
Few critical observations that need to be highlighted in case of a missed draw:
1. Cut-off score jumped to an all time high level till that point (red arrows in the graph). Till May 29, 2019 draw, CRS cutoff had never been as high as 470. Similarly, CRS cutoff was never as high as 475 till October 30, 2019 draw!
This is because of "pile-up" effect due to a missed draw. Thousands of candidates that may have had ITAs issued in missed draw crowded the following draw. Also, new candidates entered pool at a consistent rate and there is an upward movement of candidates in the pool. This resulted in overcompensation of CRS cutoff to issue ITAs to backlogged candidates. This does make statistical sense because what happened between these unusually distant draws was allocation of candidates at an expected rate.
2. After the expected jump in CRS cutoff score, correction begins in the form of a steep decline in CRS cutoff scores (green arrows). Merely 4 draws after the one that marked an epic high of 470, cutoff scores dropped below 460. Similar story can be narrated for October 2019 episode.
This is expected. Since after draws resume at a normal rate, scores begin to normalize as "crowding" candidates from missed draw begin to receive ITA's. This should help calm some anxious souls!
3. This is where the rub lies. Correction is steep but never as steep as to drop the CRS cutoff scores to "the way things were". On May 1 2019, CRS cutoff was 450, it hiked to 470 due to a missed draw, and ultimately receded to 459 after four normal draws. That is still 9 points higher than before the missed draw. And on October 2, 2019, cutoff was 464, that ballooned by 11 points to 475, before deflating back to 469 after two months - still 5 points here than before the missed draw.
This is the trickiest of all to decipher but my best guess is that it's the norm! Even if there was no sudden hike, eventually the Cutoff scores would increase albeit at a slower pace. This is because there is a continuous push by candidates to move upward in rank (by retaking language test, or even earning a diploma or a graduate degree, etc.) which results in net positive movement because drop-offs (due to aging, ITAs received, etc.) are not as high. Hence this slow, but steady, upward crawl prevents scores to fall to as low as they were before. Unless there is a missed draw or some other extraordinary situation, candidates should not expect cut-off scores to go down (at least not significantly).
This is disconcerting for people who are daunted by latest cutoff of 478 and were expecting (because of observation # 2) a steep decline. Please continue to read for a ray of hope!
COVID - AN ABNORMALITY LIKE NONE OTHER
Now let's get back to today! After 3 months of abstention, there was a jump in cutoff score of 8 points! If historical data is to be used for extrapolation, I would expect a hike to the tune of 20-30 points or more! (Imagine a cutoff score of 500+!!).
This abnormally dampened jump can be attributed to the fact that WE ARE NOT LIVING IN NORMAL TIMES. COVID-19 has essentially shut the world down. Folks cannot gather documents such as ECA and most important give IELTS in most of the countries. After such a major gap, total number of candidates have dropped from previous draw (by 300) - this is perhaps the first of its kind! Even if by a small margin, I have noticed an increase in total number of candidates in future draws. COVID has resulted in more drop offs than upward movement!
This is again expected. It is becoming exceptionally difficult (or impossible in most cases) to take (or retake) language tests or request documents during this time. This has resulted in people having to wait till things "open up" before they can attempt to move upward in rank, or even enter express entry.
And this is a ray of hope for people who had all their documents sorted out before COVID caused shut downs. There is a decent chance that as we see a "corrective" decline in CRS cutoff scores, it may actually go quite low - lower than in examples provided above. This is because all the factors that prevented scores to drop further (the upward crawl of candidates) is missing (or halted to a vast extent).
Whether cutoff score will drop to as low as ours, is to be seen!
But this changed on July 8, 2020 when hopeful prospective candidates - like us - woke up to the news of all-program draw being resumed after 4 months of dormancy.
Even though the cutoff CRS score was an all time high of 478, it wasn't as high as I had expected keeping in mind that the last draw was months ago and had a cutoff score of 471.
A peek into the past
Based on my data analysis (for all-program draws data going back to March 2019), a draw is conducted every 11 business days with few exceptions.
May 29, 2019 draw was conducted 21 days after the previous draw on May 1, 2019, which deviated from the regular cycle by one missed draw. This brief disruption resulted in a jump of 20 points in CRS cutoff score (from 450 to 470)!
Similarly, October 30, 2019 draw was 21 days after its predecessor resulting in a jump of 11 points in CRS cutoff score (from 464 to 475)!
The missed all-program draw allowed room for a specialized draw for Federal Skilled Trade stream, PNP stream, etc. Please refer to the graph below that relates CRS Cutoff Score to Draws (since March 2019).
Few critical observations that need to be highlighted in case of a missed draw:
1. Cut-off score jumped to an all time high level till that point (red arrows in the graph). Till May 29, 2019 draw, CRS cutoff had never been as high as 470. Similarly, CRS cutoff was never as high as 475 till October 30, 2019 draw!
This is because of "pile-up" effect due to a missed draw. Thousands of candidates that may have had ITAs issued in missed draw crowded the following draw. Also, new candidates entered pool at a consistent rate and there is an upward movement of candidates in the pool. This resulted in overcompensation of CRS cutoff to issue ITAs to backlogged candidates. This does make statistical sense because what happened between these unusually distant draws was allocation of candidates at an expected rate.
2. After the expected jump in CRS cutoff score, correction begins in the form of a steep decline in CRS cutoff scores (green arrows). Merely 4 draws after the one that marked an epic high of 470, cutoff scores dropped below 460. Similar story can be narrated for October 2019 episode.
This is expected. Since after draws resume at a normal rate, scores begin to normalize as "crowding" candidates from missed draw begin to receive ITA's. This should help calm some anxious souls!
3. This is where the rub lies. Correction is steep but never as steep as to drop the CRS cutoff scores to "the way things were". On May 1 2019, CRS cutoff was 450, it hiked to 470 due to a missed draw, and ultimately receded to 459 after four normal draws. That is still 9 points higher than before the missed draw. And on October 2, 2019, cutoff was 464, that ballooned by 11 points to 475, before deflating back to 469 after two months - still 5 points here than before the missed draw.
This is the trickiest of all to decipher but my best guess is that it's the norm! Even if there was no sudden hike, eventually the Cutoff scores would increase albeit at a slower pace. This is because there is a continuous push by candidates to move upward in rank (by retaking language test, or even earning a diploma or a graduate degree, etc.) which results in net positive movement because drop-offs (due to aging, ITAs received, etc.) are not as high. Hence this slow, but steady, upward crawl prevents scores to fall to as low as they were before. Unless there is a missed draw or some other extraordinary situation, candidates should not expect cut-off scores to go down (at least not significantly).
This is disconcerting for people who are daunted by latest cutoff of 478 and were expecting (because of observation # 2) a steep decline. Please continue to read for a ray of hope!
COVID - AN ABNORMALITY LIKE NONE OTHER
Now let's get back to today! After 3 months of abstention, there was a jump in cutoff score of 8 points! If historical data is to be used for extrapolation, I would expect a hike to the tune of 20-30 points or more! (Imagine a cutoff score of 500+!!).
This abnormally dampened jump can be attributed to the fact that WE ARE NOT LIVING IN NORMAL TIMES. COVID-19 has essentially shut the world down. Folks cannot gather documents such as ECA and most important give IELTS in most of the countries. After such a major gap, total number of candidates have dropped from previous draw (by 300) - this is perhaps the first of its kind! Even if by a small margin, I have noticed an increase in total number of candidates in future draws. COVID has resulted in more drop offs than upward movement!
This is again expected. It is becoming exceptionally difficult (or impossible in most cases) to take (or retake) language tests or request documents during this time. This has resulted in people having to wait till things "open up" before they can attempt to move upward in rank, or even enter express entry.
And this is a ray of hope for people who had all their documents sorted out before COVID caused shut downs. There is a decent chance that as we see a "corrective" decline in CRS cutoff scores, it may actually go quite low - lower than in examples provided above. This is because all the factors that prevented scores to drop further (the upward crawl of candidates) is missing (or halted to a vast extent).
Whether cutoff score will drop to as low as ours, is to be seen!
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